Population growth and economic development in China have increased the demand for food and animal feed, raising questions regarding China's future maize production self-sufficiency. This study combines data-driven projections with a machine learning method on data from 402 stations and 87 field experiments across China. Results suggest that current maize yield could roughly double with optimal planting density and management. A 52% yield improvement is projected by the 2030s through dense planting and soil improvement under a high-end climate forcing scenario (SSP585), outweighing the negative effects of climate change. This implies that China can achieve maize self-sufficiency using current cropping areas, challenging the notion of yield stagnation and providing an example of how food security can be achieved with optimal crop-soil management.

Ning Luo, Qingfeng Meng, Puyu Feng, Ziren Qu, Yonghong Yu, De Li Liu, Christoph Müller, Pu Wang