China can be self-sufficient in maize production by 2030 with optimal crop management

Population growth and economic development in China have increased the demand for food and animal feed, raising questions regarding China's future maize production self-sufficiency. This study combines data-driven projections with a machine learning method on data from 402 stations and 87 field experiments across China. Results suggest that current maize yield could roughly double with optimal planting density and management. A 52% yield improvement is projected by the 2030s through dense planting and soil improvement under a high-end climate forcing scenario (SSP585), outweighing the negative effects of climate change. This implies that China can achieve maize self-sufficiency using current cropping areas, challenging the notion of yield stagnation and providing an example of how food security can be achieved with optimal crop-soil management.

Ning Luo, Qingfeng Meng, Puyu Feng, Ziren Qu, Yonghong Yu, De Li Liu, Christoph Müller, Pu Wang