Medicine and Health

Bidirectional contact tracing could dramatically improve COVID-19 control

W. J. Bradshaw, E. C. Alley, et al.

Discover how bidirectional contact tracing can revolutionize COVID-19 control! This study reveals that recognizing both infectors and infectees can more than double the reduction in the effective reproduction number, offering a robust strategy against low case detection. Conducted by William J. Bradshaw and colleagues, this research highlights the immense potential of enhanced tracing methods.

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Abstract

Contact tracing is crucial for COVID-19 control, but most protocols only forward-trace. This study uses a stochastic branching-process model to demonstrate that bidirectional tracing, identifying both infectors and infectees, significantly improves outbreak control. Bidirectional tracing more than doubles the reduction in the effective reproduction number (R_eff) compared to forward-tracing alone, showing greater resilience to low case ascertainment and test sensitivity. Expanding the temporal tracing window or implementing high-uptake smartphone-based exposure notification enhances effectiveness. The findings suggest that bidirectional tracing could dramatically improve COVID-19 control.

Publisher

Nature Communications

Published On

Feb 11, 2021

Authors

William J. Bradshaw, Ethan C. Alley, Jonathan H. Huggins, Alun L. Lloyd, Kevin M. Esvelt

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