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Abstract
Contact tracing is crucial for COVID-19 control, but most protocols only forward-trace. This study uses a stochastic branching-process model to demonstrate that bidirectional tracing, identifying both infectors and infectees, significantly improves outbreak control. Bidirectional tracing more than doubles the reduction in the effective reproduction number (R_eff) compared to forward-tracing alone, showing greater resilience to low case ascertainment and test sensitivity. Expanding the temporal tracing window or implementing high-uptake smartphone-based exposure notification enhances effectiveness. The findings suggest that bidirectional tracing could dramatically improve COVID-19 control.
Publisher
Nature Communications
Published On
Feb 11, 2021
Authors
William J. Bradshaw, Ethan C. Alley, Jonathan H. Huggins, Alun L. Lloyd, Kevin M. Esvelt
Tags
contact tracing
COVID-19 control
bidirectional tracing
effective reproduction number
stochastic modeling
exposure notification
outbreak control
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