Intense cyclones driving extreme Arctic weather and climate events have been more frequently observed during recent years, causing dramatic environmental and socioeconomic impacts. This study analyzes multiple reanalysis datasets covering seven decades, employing improved cyclone tracking and integrated activity metrics. Results indicate an intensification of Arctic cyclone activity, with a long-term shift towards stronger and longer-lasting cyclones. Spatial analysis reveals increased strong cyclone frequency, driven by enhanced lower troposphere baroclinicity, amplified winter jet stream waves, and a strengthened summer tropospheric vortex. Stratospheric vortex intensification also plays a role. The findings suggest more complex atmospheric dynamics than previously hypothesized.

Xiangdong Zhang, Han Tang, Jing Zhang, John E. Walsh, Erika L. Roesler, Benjamin Hillman, Thomas J. Ballinger, Wilbert Weijer