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Accounting for tropical cyclones more than doubles the global population exposed to low-probability coastal flooding

Environmental Studies and Forestry

Accounting for tropical cyclones more than doubles the global population exposed to low-probability coastal flooding

J. C. M. Dullaart, S. Muis, et al.

This groundbreaking study reveals that storm surges, exacerbated by tropical cyclones, expose 192 million people to potentially devastating coastal floods, a staggering 31% increase from prior estimates. Conducted by Job C. M. Dullaart and colleagues, this research integrates advanced modeling techniques to highlight the urgent need for better flood preparedness.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
Storm surges along low-lying, densely populated coastlines cause devastating impacts. This study presents storm tide return periods using a novel integration of two modeling techniques: ERA5 reanalysis for extratropical cyclones and synthetic tropical cyclones from the STORM dataset for tropical cyclones. The results show that including tropical cyclones more than doubles (from 78 million to 192 million) the global population exposed to a 1-in-1000-year coastal flood, revealing a 31% underestimation in previous studies.
Publisher
Communications Earth & Environment
Published On
Jun 29, 2021
Authors
Job C. M. Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Nadia Bloemendaal, Maria V. Chertova, Anaïs Couasnon, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Tags
storm surges
coastal floods
extratropical cyclones
tropical cyclones
population exposure
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